Archive for 2016

Truth Vs Theory. Are we still looking for MH370 in the wrong place?


TRUTH v THEORY.

Are we still trying to fix square pegs into round holes?  

Are we trying to make facts fit questionable theories to save face and justify the spending of Millions of Dollars?

I think we should remind ourselves that INMARSAT officials have stated that their calculations of the possible position of MH370 have been based on new theories which are unproven and which, they have said, are NOT GUARANTEED TO BE ACCURATE.

The Australian Minister for Transport said, earlier, that the INMARSAT calculations provided the best theory on the table and, in the view of his experts, the best guidance that was available to determine the search area.

However, this is the first search of its kind to be based on relatively flimsy science which has been used to justify expenditure in excess of USD 100 million to date.

Personally, I have never accepted the south Indian Ocean location as a viable crash site and my gut feeling, and experience, has, and will continue to tell me that the aircraft went down to the west of the
Malaysian mainland without proper control of a human pilot. 

People seem to have forgotten the reports of eyewitnesses on an oil rig and on a yacht, seeing a flaming object in the night sky, on that night, in the area to the west of Malaysia.  But the scientific theory could not allow these reports to be correct and they were discarded.

Now, we have seen that some aircraft parts have been discovered on beaches of Mozambique, Reunion Island, and other east African coastal locations.

* Section of a control panel called a flaperon, normally attached to the wing, was found on Reunion Island in July 2015 - confirmed as debris in September 2015.

* Part of a horizontal stabilizer from the tail, found in Mozambique in December 2015.

* Section of a stabilizer panel with "No Step" stencil, found in Mozambique in February 2016.

      * Section of engine cowling bearing a Rolls-Royce logo, found in March 2016 in Mossel Bay, South Africa.
     
A Fragment of an interior door panel found in Rodrigues Island, Mauritius in March 2016.

The pundits are now saying that these discoveries prove the accuracy of the search area because the parts have had time to drift with the ocean currents from the general search area in the south Indian Ocean.

Well now - isn’t it also true that these same parts may have come from somewhere much closer?   How about a crash site to the west of Malaysia? 

I have said since day one that the aircraft was not under full control and was flying on a course set on the Flight Management System but with incapacitated pilots unable to make changes.  The aircraft descended to a low altitude because the pilots had set an emergency descent when a catastrophic event occurred on the aircraft but they had been unable to complete their manoeuvre due to incapacitation. 

The aircraft then continued on a pre-set, or random, heading until its descent took it into the water to the west of Malaysia.   Some theories say that it was under full control and even say that a suicidal pilot did a circuit around his home island.  Rubbish!!!   The home island was beside the highly sensitive international “5 eyes” surveillance facility and the major Penang air force base, the home of the RMAF and it is highly unlikely that the Malaysian military would have allowed such “loitering” of an unidentified aircraft in their airspace.   

If they did, it shows their lack of interest in security or their incompetence in following unidentified traffic and comes back to my much earlier questions about “what happened in the first 4 hours when MH370 disappeared”?   http://www.drainternational.aero/2014/10/what-happened-in-first-four-hours-when.html

Now we see reports http://www.baaa-acro.com/2014/archives/mas-777-missing-over-the-gulf-of-thailand-with-239-people-on-board/ which have not had wide circulation, that 6 Swiss Citizens have formally testified to the Swiss authorities, that when making a cruise between Perth and Singapore via Jakarta, the following evidence was spotted on March 12 while approaching the Sunda Strait:

·         1430LT - latitude 6° S, longitude 105° E, speed 17,7 knots:   life jacket, food trays, papers, pieces of polystyrene, wallets,
·         1500LT:   a huge white piece of 6 meters long to 2,5 meters wide with other debris,
·         1530LT:   two masts one metre in length with small red and blue flags on top,
·         2030LT - latitude 5° S, longitude 107° E, speed 20,2 knots.

In the days before scientists sitting in a laboratory in Europe could do mathematical calculations to direct the search effort of all concerned, we would have used basic search methods based on the last known location of the missing aircraft.  These would have started from position reports and radar traces available from civil and military radar units.  Today, satellite imagery would also be used, if available.

The searchers might then have seen the same items as reported by the Swiss nationals.  In any case, such reports would have immediately been investigated further.  Were these reports checked at the time?   Did search vessels scour the area?

So, it is a good thing that parts of the aircraft are starting to appear and maybe they will lead to the discovery of the main wreckage, but should we recognise that the actual crash site may be much closer to the parts discovered than the south Indian Ocean??

I firmly believe that whatever remaining funds are available for searching should be used to search that area between Malaysia and the location of the parts which have been discovered.

Desmond Ross

28th May 2016
Tuesday, 31 May 2016
Posted by Des Ross

The Vanishing: GQ article on MH370


A great article from GQ magazine, with collaboration with Des Ross. Read the article here.
Monday, 30 May 2016
Posted by Des Ross

Egypt Air MS804 Crash. Des Ross on TRT Television


Des Ross was interviewed on Turkish TV about the crash of Egypt Air MS804 and the possible causes. Watch the full interview here 
Saturday, 21 May 2016
Posted by Des Ross

Analysis of the German Wings Flight 9525 air crash investigation report


Des Ross was interviewed by Radio Sputnik on the findings of the BEA air crash investigation report on German Wings Flight 9525 and the implications for medical record confidentiality for pilots. You can listen to Des's comments and analysis here


Sunday, 20 March 2016
Posted by Des Ross

Aviation Project Delivery

We specialise in the design, management and delivery of complex aviation projects. We have successfully delivered major aviation developments for the European Union, ICAO, Price Waterhouse Cooper, Adam Smith International, PNG Government, Pacific Aviation Safety Office, Airports Vanuatu Limited, The Asian Development Bank, and the Indian Director General of Civil Aviation

Aviation Recuitment Services

We are experts in recruitment services for the Aviation Industry in management, operations and aviation security (AVSEC).

Public speaking

We have Aviation and Travel experts in our team who will will appear as speakers at your conference or event. Subjects include Aviation mishaps, The difficulties faced in working in remote areas, and much more. Contact us for more details, we can tailor the talk to your needs.

Coming Soon

Safety and local information briefings for staff to visit, or be based in, countries in Africa, Asia or the Pacific.

- Copyright © Desmond Ross and Associates - Designed by ffp -